Auto Semis & SIA Monthly: Inside The Circuit June 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Auto Semis & SIA Monthly: Inside The Circuit June 2026

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 2, 2026

■Automobiles & Components: Automobiles Auto Semis & SIA Monthly: Inside The Circuit

■Semiconductors

June 2026

Joshua Buchalter, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1303

June LVP SAAR ests for '26-'28 come down again M/M, but far less sharply than in prior months

joshua.buchalter@tdsecurities.com

when affordability dynamics were less clear. 1Q26 semis reporting saw better than feared auto

Itay Michaeli results and guides, but elevated and prolonged input costs could bring affordability concerns

646 562 1412 into crisper focus in 2Q; high fuel prices provide a positive silver lining for xEV demand outlook.

itay.michaeli@tdsecurities.com

Sam Reiff, CFA 3rd Party Est. Commentary: '26-'28 IHS production ests dropped again M/M, but the M/M

312 577 2217 delta is much more muted versus ~1% declines in April/May following the commencement

sam.reiff@tdsecurities.com of the Iran War; downside in the June forecast is most pronounced in mainland China as

Lannie Trieu, CFA domestic demand weakens, offset by encouraging export data (Itay Michaeli's note here).

415 646 7217 Vehicle affordability (impacted by fuel, DRAM, precious metal inflation) remains a risk to

lannie.trieu@tdsecurities.com production, and 3rd party estimates contemplate oil prices to persist above '25 levels through

'27. Ultimately, impact and duration of inflationary demand headwinds are difficult to gauge,

Ethan Potasnick

and 1Q26 EPS commentary by the auto semis group didn't feature cautious auto guidance as646 562 1425

ethan.potasnick@tdsecurities.com we'd previewed... but commentary leaned much more heavily into content stories than unit

dynamics.