Q2 preview - many (many) moving parts in H2

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 preview - many (many) moving parts in H2

adly in-line with guidance albeit at the

upper end, and we estimate Q2 will fall into range too. That probably means the lower end of the 2026 (DKK) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

range (-12% CER adjusted sales growth) is not realistic. However, with generic erosion hitting EPS -- -- -- -- 24.93

harder as the year progresses and potential volume uplift from Medicare only likely coming PREV 24.79

through slowly, lifting the upper end of the guidance range more than by a small amount seems *Rev. (B)

unlike at this point. We suspect the mid-point of the range may move up by 100bps (like in Q1).

Many moving parts in H2: As mentioned above, making aggressive volume Medicare

assumptions at this point would seem premature. Beyond that factors impacting H2 include

Canada semaglutide generics (where price has come down quicker than expected), competitor

in the oral GLP-1 space as well as formulary changes. How 2026 ultimately shapes up and

how this reads into 2027 will depend on some of these factors. We are not sure if Novo will

have enough visibility at its September 2026 CMD to provide a financial update. It seems more

likely this may come with Q3. With incremental price pressure into 2027, how much Novo will

be able to grow the top-line remains to be seen.

Will Novo do M&A? We have stated several times that executing a BD strategy outside obesity

for duration assets could be well received. The company’s current strategic focus regarding

BD remains unclear. It is possible we will get an update on capital allocation into or at the CMD.

However, size and target area remains unclear.

Reiterate Hold; PT +6%: On comping to peers 2027E P/E multiple.

Michael Leuchten * | Equity Analyst

+44 (0) 20 7029 8346 | mleuchten@jefferies.com