NHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts Expenditures Between Categories

Research evidence excerpt

NHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts Expenditures Between Categories

USA | Healthcare Services EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

Exhibit 3 - Demographics, ACA SubsidyNHE Forecasts Similar Spending Path, But Shifts

Expirations, & OBBBA Cuts Drive Weakness In

Medicaid & Private Health InsuranceExpenditures Between Categories

CMS released this week its 2026 report, which forecasts National Health

Expenditures (NHE) to grow at a 5.4% CAGR from 2025 to 2034 to nearly $9T,

with H/C spending growing to 20.6% of GDP by 2034. Our analysis of the data

shows that CMS revised its NHE estimates ($) vs last year's report by -0.1%,

with notable increases in spend expectations for home health and physician &

clinical, in contrast to a large cut for SNFs. See accompanying charts for details.

US National Health Expenditures Projected to Grow at a 5.4% CAGR From '25 to '34.

Overall spending on healthcare in the US is projected to grow to $9T in 2034, which represents .Source: Jefferies, CMS•

a CAGR of 5.4%.

The projected increase in NHE translates to healthcare spending representing 20.6% of US•

GDP in 2034, up from 18.4% in 2025.

CMS expects NHE to grow +7.3% in 2025, slightly up from +7.2% in 2024.•

CMS projects NHE spending growth to decelerate beginning in 2026, driven by eAPTC•

expiration (-3.7MM lives), followed by Medicaid cuts from the OBBBA, hitting expenditures in

2027-2028, alongside slower expected growth in the utilization of health care services and

goods.

NHE growth is expected to average near +5.2% from 2029 to 2034, driven by Medicare spend•

trending at +7.3% during this period, which reflects the decelerating enrollment growth of the

baby boom generation beginning in 2029, the aging of current beneficiaries, and the expiration

of the sequester in 2033.