Adjusting Estimates For Risks To ASPs In 2027-2028

Research evidence excerpt

Adjusting Estimates For Risks To ASPs In 2027-2028

USA | Chemicals

Albemarle EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

TARGET | ESTIMATE CHANGEAdjusting Estimates For Risks To ASPs In

RATING BUY2027-2028

PRICE $129.72^

We adjust estimates to account for increased equity income contribution, and

lithium pricing that will likely be higher in 2H26 than we previously expected. PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $211.00 ($244.00) | +63%

We assume lithium prices remains near $20/kg through year-end. Given the 52W HIGH-LOW $221.00 - $60.64

lag in contract structures, most of the benefit from the uptick in prices will be FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 100.1% | 312.60

more evident in 2H26. While ESS demand growth likely outpaces EVs, we lower MARKET CAP $15.2B

2027-2028 forecasts to better reflect supply risks. TICKER ALB ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

Pricing Ticking Higher: While realized prices were ~$17/kg in 1Q26, blended prices are likely ~

$20/kg near-term, with supply from Australia, China and Africa likely to offset solid demand growth.

FY (Dec) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

The lithium market is shifting toward a structural rebalancing as stationary energy storage systems

2026 2027 2026 2027

(ESS) emerge as a primary demand driver, with global ESS production forecast to grow between

25% and 60% in 2026. While global EV unit sales growth likely moderate in 2H, lithium demand REV +13% -14% -3% -19%

continue to benefit from larger average battery sizes, particularly in China, where subsidy changes EPS +29% -44% +3% -32%

drove a shift toward premium vehicles and larger batteries. At the same time, ESS demand has

accelerated meaningfully, supported by structural drivers such as grid reliability, renewable energy 2026 ($) Q1A Q2 Q3 Q4 FY