2Q26F Preview: YoY Improvements But Aided By Soft Comps

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26F Preview: YoY Improvements But Aided By Soft Comps

enue Exhibit 1 - Metso's FY2 PER is at the bottom

to also move divisional EBITA margins above 18%, a level that should be sustained for the rest end of its recent range, with EPS expectations

little changed

of the year. In Aggregates, we expect the usual seasonal uplift in revenue, and we model strong € 0.90 24x

yoy EBITA margin improvement due to the investment costs that impacted 2Q25. Against € 0.85 22x

1Q26, however, we do not model much improvement in margins. Assuming the same central €€ 0.800.75 20x18x

costs as 1Q, this results in a group EBITA estimate of €222m, 2% below consensus, and a € 0.70 16x

16.6% EBITA margin (vs FY28F target >18%). €€ 0.600.65 14x12x

€ 0.55 10x

Working capital to improve over 2H26F: There was a large c€150m working capital outflow in € 0.50 8x

Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 May-26 Jun-261Q due to a build in Inventory, and while we model less outflow in working capital in 2Q, the real 2025 2026 2027 FY2 PER

improvement in working capital and operating cashflow should emerge over 2Q as revenue .Source: FactSet

builds above orders (aided by down-payments if significant Mineral OE orders come through Exhibit 2 - Mining Equipment: FY27F EBIT

margin vs EV/Sales

over 2H). We model Net Debt:EBITDA at a similar level to 1Q26 at 1.2x. 7.0x

6.0x CAT

Forecasts: On a FY basis, there are no changes to our EBITA forecasts over FY26-FY28F, albeit 5.0x

Reported PBT / EPS move up in FY26 on alterations to restructuring cost assumptions. 4.0x EPI EV/Sales SAND

FY27F 3.0x WEIRValuation: Metso trades on FY26F EV/EBITA and PER multiples of 14.7x and 21.8x, falling to 2.0x METSO

13.1x and 18.7x if we look out to FY27F.