Global Banks Strategist Macro shift, new country calls: upgrade US to positive, downgrade mainland China to neutral

Research evidence excerpt

Global Banks Strategist Macro shift, new country calls: upgrade US to positive, downgrade mainland China to neutral

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South Korea Positive Strong economic growth moment due to global AI capex demand. We see valuations as attractive in light of the

government agenda to reduce the South Korea discount and increase shareholder returns.

Thailand Cautious Discounted valuations; increased political stability positive for business sentiment, but monetary and fiscal policy

constraints remain; bank fundamentals are unattractive.

Singapore Positive Active capital management supporting valuations with better NIM outlooks due to higher rates.

Japan Positive Expansionary fiscal policy measures and rate hikes are supportive of earnings and profitability: country risk premia

too elevated.

Australia Neutral Restrictive monetary policy in response to domestic inflationary challenge is having headwinds on the economic

growth. Valuations already reflect NIMs tailwinds from higher rates and improved asset quality.

South Africa Positive (from neutral) Ongoing delivery in terms of government reform agenda, banks highly profitable. Expectations of no

further rate hikes makes the risk/reward trade-off more favourable.

Greece Positive Country and bank fundamentals continue improving. Valuations remain attractive.

Poland Positive Good economic and banking fundamentals; beneficiary of European fiscal expansion; valuations offer attractive

entry points for banks with healthy medium-term fundamentals.

Türkiye Neutral Monetary policy normalisation, important for the margin/ROTE expansion stories for banks, pushed back to H2

2026; risk/reward trade off less attractive in the short term. Reclassification to frontier market a risk