Korea Trade June exports surprise: not just an IT story?

Research evidence excerpt

Korea Trade June exports surprise: not just an IT story?

Economics - Data Reactions ● Korea

2 July 2026

With regard to the -1.4ppt moderation in daily export growth compared to May, details from MOTIR showed that the IT sector

continued to underpin overall momentum. Specifically, daily exports of semiconductors (179.4% y-o-y vs. 182.5% in May, +0.9ppt;

driven by a continued rise in contract prices reflecting healthy demand) and computers (280.7% vs. 310.0% in May, +0.4ppt; driven

by healthy demand for AI servers and eSSD) continued to surge. The pick-up in daily exports of mobile communication devices was

also notable (41.8% vs. 18.2% in May, +0.3ppt; driven by strong sales of a new smartphone with enhanced AI capabilities). On the

other hand, daily exports of both petroleum products (40.2% vs. 59.1% in May, -1.2ppt) and petrochemicals (10.8% vs. 16.5% in

May, -0.3ppt) softened amid export controls and a slower rise in export prices.

Please see Table at the back for a detailed breakdown of monthly exports (in monthly headline terms).

Implications

Semiconductor export growth likely moderated in volume terms… On Tuesday, Korea’s May IP data surprised sharply to the

downside, as semiconductor production fell 10% m-o-m sa due to high base effects from 1Q26. We think the softening trend for

semiconductor export volume likely continued (Chart 2), as contract prices for memory chips continued to rise for both key DRAM

and NAND products in June, accounting for much of the rise in value terms. As we discussed in our IP note, this is largely expected

and should not surprise the market (see Korea IP and activity: Looking beyond May’s weakness, 30 June).2

Chart 2: Semiconductor exports: value vs Chart 3: 2Q26 trade data raise upside risks

volume to our 2Q26 growth forecast