JefU - Middle East Expert Call Feedback

Research evidence excerpt

JefU - Middle East Expert Call Feedback

Global | Lodging EquityJuneResearch30, 2026

We hosted Philip Wooller, Senior Director for STR Middle East/Africa.

Current trends are heavily impacted, with progressive volumes-led

improvement since early May. A swift recovery is expected in the region,

pivoting to positive y/y RevPAR growth in 2Q27. While development

experiences ST impact, LT market attractiveness and int'l brand growth

prospects are unchanged. Overall, the presentation was bullish for Lodging

generally, and specifically MAR, HLT.

Key takeaways from the call:

Current trends: RevPAR in the GCC region down 38% y/y over the March-May period•

(-66% y/y March-May 2020), driven by occupancy decline of -32% y/y and with some

resilience of ADR (-9% y/y). Overall rooms revenue declined by 38% y/y. UAE is one of the

most impacted countries, while Saudi Arabia remains resilient. May has been showing

some sequential improvement, with this trend continuing into June, driven by volumes

from domestic/intra-regional travelers. The market is heavily geared to corporate and

international travel (including events), which have yet to show an inflection. Markets

benefiting from the repatriation of travel flows include, Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, Tunisia,

as well as Spain in Europe.

Recovery scenario: our expert is confident on a relatively swift recovery for the region•

with a substantial backlog expected to materialize. Yet, Q3 is a seasonally low quarter,

while Q4 should likely show a more meaningful inflection, notably with a busy calendar

of events. STR/Costar forecasts RevPAR still down y/y in 4Q26 and 1Q27 (occupancy

slightly up y/y in 1Q27), before a return to positive y/y growth in 2Q27.

Development: the conflict is likely to imply a delay in terms of development. While labor•