BMO Metals Brief

Research evidence excerpt

BMO Metals Brief

upply chains remains a 5,600

challenge. They also highlight key catalysts to watch, including U.S.-China trade relations, export 5,500

restrictions, and the next wave of government support for the sector. 5,400

5,300

 Copper Tariff Day: Today, June 30, is the deadline for the US Commerce Secretary to update 5,2005,100

President Trump on recommendations for refined copper tariffs. We laid out potential outcomes 5,000

and what this could mean for copper prices and inventory movements in our recent note, Copper 4,900

4,800 Tariffs: What Happens If...?. As this deadline has been nearing, the CME-LME spread has been 4,700

narrowing again - albeit amid a lot of macro volatility) - suggesting the market has been 4,600

reducing bets of a definitive, immediate tariff decision. Albeit, in trading so far today, the spread 4,500

has widened again with CME prices +1.7% versus LME +0.9%. 29 Mar 29 Apr 29 May 29 Jun

 China manufacturing PMI beats expectations in June: China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to Source: LME, BMO Capital Markets

50.3 in June from 50.0 in May, exceeding market expectations of 50.1 and marking a fourth

consecutive month in expansion territory, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Strength Spot Gold

was driven by improving production and demand, with the new orders index rising to 51.2 vs

49.9 in May, while equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs reached 52.5 5,000

and 53.5, respectively. The data points to continued resilience in China’s industrial sector,

supported by infrastructure investment, particularly in power generation and grid, and improving 4,800

export orders as trade tensions ease.

4,600

 Chinese zinc smelters agree concentrate cuts amid profitability pressures: Sixteen major Chinese