Q2/26 Preview; Do My Benefits Cover Whiplash?

Research evidence excerpt

Q2/26 Preview; Do My Benefits Cover Whiplash?

June 30, 2026 | 06:18 ET~

Oil & Gas

Q2/26 Preview; Do My Benefits Cover Whiplash? Oil & Gas

Randy Ollenberger Analyst

randy.ollenberger@bmo.com (403) 515-1502

Tariq Saad, CFA Analyst

Bottom Line: tariq.saad@bmo.com (403) 515-1519

Q2/26 delivered significant commodity price volatility, with crude prices falling by Jeremy McCrea, CFA Analyst

~US$40/bbl from peak to trough. AECO prices were modestly weaker y/y as storage jeremy.mccrea@bmo.com (403) 355-1444

levels remain high largely due to reduced flows to the US Pacific market. Numerous oil David Lee, CFA Senior Associate

sands assets were hampered by turnaround activity, which was further exacerbated by David6.lee@bmo.com (403) 355-1451

wet/muddy conditions constraining mining operations in June. Despite the headwinds, Nicholas Savoy Senior Associate

we see overall FCF generation for the group improving by ~50% q/q, with the senior nicholas.savoy@bmo.com (403) 476-2384

producers boasting the most compelling yields. With this update, our Q2/26 production Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

and CFPS estimates are now sitting ~2% below consensus, on average.

Key Points

Strength Unwinds. WTI prices fell by ~US$40/bbl from peak to trough in Q2/26,

averaging ~US$93. The SoH closure persisted throughout the quarter, but pricing began

to materially soften throughout the last few weeks of June as a prospective US/Iran

peace deal prompted SoH crossings reaching the highest level since the conflict began.

AECO prices were ~9% lower y/y as storage levels continue to bulge due to reduced

exports to U.S. Pacific markets. The situation was partially aided by WCSB production

falling by ~0.85 bcf/d q/q and LNG flows averaging ~1.6 bcf/d, slowing injections.

It's Turnaround Season.