Q2 Mark-to-Market: Estimate Changes

Research evidence excerpt

Q2 Mark-to-Market: Estimate Changes

June 30, 2026 | 06:12 ET~

Oil & Gas

Q2 Mark-to-Market: Estimate Changes Oil & Gas

Randy Ollenberger Analyst

randy.ollenberger@bmo.com (403) 515-1502

Phillip Jungwirth, CFA* AnalystBottom Line:

phillip.jungwirth@bmo.com (303) 436-1127

We revise our commodity price assumptions to reflect evolving oil market dynamics,

Tariq Saad, CFA Analystincluding expectations for increased Middle Eastern supply and a more balanced global

tariq.saad@bmo.com (403) 515-1519

crude market. In conjunction with the updated commodity outlook, we adjust our

Jeremy McCrea, CFA Analystfinancial estimates for the North American O&G group and U.S. Refiners under coverage.

jeremy.mccrea@bmo.com (403) 355-1444

Despite generally supportive physical market indicators, including resilient product

John Gibson, CFA Analystdemand and relatively tight inventory levels, crude prices have come under pressure as

johng.gibson@bmo.com (403) 515-1527

markets increasingly price in a more balanced-to-oversupplied outlook.

Legal Entity: BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.

BMO Capital Markets Corp.*

Key Points

Commodity Price Update. We lower our 2026 Brent/WTI forecasts to US$84/bbl and

US$79/bbl, respectively, from US$88/bbl and US$84/bbl, while we increase our 2027

forecasts to US$80/bbl and US$75/bbl from US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl. For Henry Hub,

we now forecast ~US$3.40/MMBtu in 2026 and ~US$3.75/MMBtu in 2027, versus prior

estimates of US$3.60/MMBtu and US$3.85/MMBtu. We also now expect AECO to average

~C$2.10/Mcf in 2026 and ~C$3.30/Mcf in 2027, compared with our previous forecasts of

C$2.25/Mcf and C$3.75/Mcf.

E&P Estimate Changes. Reflecting our updated BMO commodity price deck, CFPS

estimates for Canadian large-cap E&Ps decline 6.5% in 2026 and increase 5.1% in 2027.

Among U.S.