Barry Callebaut: Setting the Agenda

Research evidence excerpt

Barry Callebaut: Setting the Agenda

Equity Research

European Consumer Staples

3 July 2026

Barry Callebaut

Setting the Agenda

First LookBarry will report 3Q sales on 9th July. We expect volume

growth to inflect to +3.5% (vs. consensus +1.4%), driven by

easy cocoa comps and possible pre-buying. However, FY27 BARN.S/BARN SW UNDERWEIGHT European Consumer

Staplesvolume guidance of +1-3% and ongoing cocoa price risk may NEUTRAL

Price Target CHF 1020.00

temper enthusiasm around the sustainability of the recovery. Price (02-Jul-26) CHF 1186.00

Potential Upside/Downside -14.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Cocoa comps drive volume inflection, with potential pre-buy tailwind in Q3: We anticipate a

return to volume growth in Q3 (+3.5%), ahead of company consensus (+1.4%), supported by

both cyclical and operational factors. The primary driver is very easy cocoa-related European Consumer Staples

comparatives, particularly following last year’s volume disruption, which should mechanically Alex Sloane

drive a rebound. The CEO confirmed last month at the Strategy update that volume growth was +44 (0)20 3555 0645

already returning, providing near-term visibility on this inflection. We also see scope for a alexander.sloane@barclays.com

Barclays, UKmodest pre-buying tailwind in Q3 supporting Chocolate volumes. Hershey flagged such

dynamics in calendar Q1, suggesting customers may have pulled forward purchases in response Warren Ackerman

to anticipated raw material volatility and logistics disruption. While difficult to quantify, this +44 (0)20 3134 1903

could provide incremental upside to reported volumes in the quarter. We forecast FY volume at warren.ackerman@barclays.com

Barclays, UK-1.5%, toward the better end of the company’s -1% to -3% guidance range and modestly ahead