Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#115): The historically high level of IPO..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#115): The historically high level of IPO..."

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#115): The historically high level of IPO issuance

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

IPOs as a share of market cap remain below prior peaks — unless you include arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

lock-up expiries

My colleague Bhanu Baweja published a note this week putting the historically large US

IPO market into perspective. At an estimated $160bn, IPO issuance this year would

exceed the peaks reached in 2000, 2007, 2014 and 2021. However, when adjusted for

the size of the equity market (today's chart), 2026 ranks only in the second quintile of

the past 30 years, well short of a record. The composition of activity also differs from

previous IPO booms. Earlier peaks were characterised by surges in both issuance

volumes and deal counts. By contrast, the number of IPOs in 2026 is close to its 30-year

trend, suggesting that activity is concentrated in a relatively small number of large deals

rather than reflecting broad-based market exuberance. In fact, when scaled by market

capitalisation, corporate credit markets are currently experiencing much stronger

issuance than equities.

That said, one of the main debates with clients has been whether headline IPO proceeds

understate the true increase in equity supply. The argument is that recently listed

companies represent a substantial pipeline of future share issuance as lock-up periods

expire and pre-IPO investors become free to sell. Including these restricted-share releases

would materially alter the picture below. 2026 would indeed look like a peak year for

equity issuance.

Even so, as the note highlights, net equity issuance remains negative once buybacks and