US Economic Data "June jobs: not bad, slower and lower" Pingle

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Data "June jobs: not bad, slower and lower" Pingle

Establishment survey details: noisy under the hood

Private employment climbed 49K, a little below our projection of 70K, and government There was a lot of noise under the

employment climbed 8K, close to our estimate of 10K, with a lot of noise under the hood.

hood. A lot of the usual stories look normal, like health care and social assistance

employment expanded 47K. Manufacturing job loss has slowed and edged up 3K.

Construction posted an 11K gain. Excluding health care and social assistance there were

a lot of small positives and negatives.

One exception to that was leisure and hospitality employment. We expected the However, one useful rule of thumb,

calendar set up would flatter May at the expense of June, given the proximity of the May the surveys have a hard time

survey reference week to Memorial Day but in a rare instance where seasonal reflecting what is actually happening

adjustment does does not adjust for that with the so-called 5-week adjustment. In the month to month in the labor market.

event employment in leisure and hospitality fell -61K in June after a 40K gain in May We're a nation of 334 million people

following a similar pattern to 2015, 2009, and 1998 - all years with this same calendar with a lot going on.

set up.

We also expected there could be some support from world cup related hiring even

though we did not expect that to show up in leisure and hospitality. When we look at

which sectors posted above trend gains in June and July of 1994, the last time the US

hosted the matches, employment services and temporary help appeared to be among

the categories supported by the games. Employment services employment rose 14K,