European Energy "Liquefaction and offtake tracker - July 2026" Stone

Research evidence excerpt

European Energy "Liquefaction and offtake tracker - July 2026" Stone

European Energy UBS Research

Liquefaction and offtake tracker

What is the outlook for 2Q26?

BP: our tracker suggests 2Q26 liquefaction volumes will be 10% lower q/q, driven by

weaker production across its portfolio, although offtake is expected to remain broadly

flat.

Shell: our tracker suggests 2Q26 liquefaction volumes of ~7.4Mton, down 5% q/q,

with LNG Canada volumes partially offsetting lost production from Qatar and Prelude.

TotalEnergies: our tracker suggests 2Q26 liquefaction volumes will be 12% lower q/q,

primarily due to weaker volumes from Qatar.

Chevron: our tracker suggests LNG volumes are trending broadly flat q/q with

utilisation rates trending close to nameplate capacity at 97%.

ExxonMobil: our tracker suggests volumes are trending down 43% q/q in 2Q with a

utilisation rate of ~40% given the impact of outages in Qatar. See our US team's deep

dive on the asset base here.

Eni: our tracker suggests 2Q26 liquefaction volumes will be 13% higher q/q, mainly due

to the continued ramp-up of volumes from the Congo FLNG projects.

Equinor: our tracker suggests 2Q26 liquefaction volumes will be 7% lower q/q due to

the planned maintenance at Hammerfest during the quarter.

Galp: our tracker suggests 2Q26 contracted LNG volumes will be 4% lower q/q,

reflecting slightly weaker volumes from Nigeria LNG.

Repsol: our tracker suggests 2Q26 LNG volumes will be 2% lower q/q, despite

continued strong offtake from its US portfolio.

Orlen: our tracker suggests 2Q26 LNG volumes will be 24% lower q/q, reflecting the

loss of supply from Qatar.

We have seen TTF-HH spreads rise >$11/mmbtu across 2Q26 vs ~$8/mmbtu in 1Q26.

Spreads are a helpful gauge of trading opportunities in the Atlantic basin, but it does not