European Energy "Moving on from Hormuz - 2Q26 Preview" Stone

Research evidence excerpt

European Energy "Moving on from Hormuz - 2Q26 Preview" Stone

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

European Energy Equities

Europe including UKMoving on from Hormuz - 2Q26 Preview

Energy

Joshua Stone

The second quarter is likely to be characterised by higher prices, elevated Analyst

refining margins and a good contribution from trading. Net debt should also be joshua.stone@ubs.com

lower q/q, in part helped by an unwind of working capital. Our updated net +44-20-7901 5588

income numbers are broadly in line with consensus on average. We are most Henri Patricot, CFA

ahead on Repsol (+15%) and BP (+11%) and most below on Eni (-5%). However, Analyst

by the time companies report results, the environment is likely to be markedly henri.patricot@ubs.com

different than during 2Q, and we have adjusted our macro deck lower +33-14-888 3033

accordingly. We estimate that the sector is now discounting an average oil price Anna Kishmariya

of $66/bl. Analyst

anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 7999

Updated macro deck to reflect a faster reopening of Hormuz

We adjust our oil and gas prices lower to reflect the recent resumption of transit via Nayoung Kim

AnalystHormuz, with supply recovering more quickly than demand is able to recover in the near

nayoung.kim@ubs.com

term. Our new deck is now more closely aligned to our 'quick resolution' scenario, with +44-20-7568 4010

Brent averaging $80/bl during 2H26 and $75/bl in 2027 (see report). Market discussions

have quickly shifted to fears of a supply glut next year, but we maintain our view that the Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

Associate Analyst

price floor has been structurally raised given the need to replenish inventories and

ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

increased risk premium. +44-20-7567 1823