Intercos S.p.A. "Q2 preview: Growing visibility on further H2 acceleration"

Research evidence excerpt

Intercos S.p.A. "Q2 preview: Growing visibility on further H2 acceleration"

s to improve sequentially, supported by growth from Make-up

12/27E 0.85 0.86 1 0.84

and Hair & Body customers, with a tailwind from the outperformance of Multinationals

12/28E 0.94 0.96 2 0.94

during the 6/18 festival. However, we note that the European make-up market is flattish

(per NielsenIQ Apr-May), in a subdued macro environment. In Asia, we anticipate Andrei Condrea

growth in Skincare, particularly from Emerging Brands, our understanding being that Analyst

they have underperformed Western Brands during the 6/18 shopping festival. In the andrei.condrea@ubs.com

Americas, we expect Skincare to have remained a drag (main driver of segment declines +44-20-7568 5061

in Q1 and Q2). Here, we note the US Make-up market continues to grow, up +5% per Guillaume Delmas

NielsenIQ. Overall, we expect group performance to accelerate further from H2 as Analyst

ICOS works through the order book, particularly in Make-up and Skincare. guillaume.delmas@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 8568

Slight organic downgrades offset by FX so EBITDA unchanged

For FY26E, we forecast +5.8% cFX net sales growth (from 6.5% previously), slightly

below cons +6.2%, with EBITDA margins seeing a modest +10bps improvement to

15.0% (unchanged; in line with cons). All in all, we leave our adj. EBITDA and

EPS estimates broadly unchanged.

Valuation: ICOS currently trades on 2026E 18x P/E, 8x EV/EBITDA, -10/-

30% large cap European Food & HPC

Highlights (€k) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 988,223 1,064,904 1,047,233 1,103,716 1,172,622 1,240,064 1,291,863 1,345,840

EBIT (UBS) 92,067 93,704 103,162 111,357 122,575 134,982 144,735 154,871

Net earnings (UBS) 56,457 56,668 57,400 69,217 79,248 88,669 96,302 104,218