European Energy "Flows and crowding monitor - July 2026" Stone

Research evidence excerpt

European Energy "Flows and crowding monitor - July 2026" Stone

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

European Energy Equities

Europe including UKFlows and crowding monitor - July 2026

Energy

Joshua Stone

The average crowding score for our European Energy coverage was flat over Analyst

the last month, and remained in a net long position. Integrateds remain the joshua.stone@ubs.com

most long-biased subsector. Eni experienced the largest move upwards m/m, +44-20-7901 5588

and Neste the largest move downwards m/m. OMV now has the highest short Henri Patricot, CFA

interest among the Integrateds. Analyst

henri.patricot@ubs.com

Energy positioning declines in May +33-14-888 3033

The average crowding score for our European Energy coverage slipped slightly m/m from Anna Kishmariya

1.6 to 1.4. The Integrateds crowding score increased from +4.2 last month to +5.1 this Analyst

month, with large positive changes for Eni and Equinor. The score for Refining names anna.kishmariya@ubs.com

fell (-2.1 vs -1.0 last month), with margins averaging over $22/bbl QTD (weekly tracker +44-20-7568 7999

here). The Services subsector fell from -2.9 to -3.3 mainly driven by Technip Energies. Christopher Leonard

For the EM names, crowding rose slightly from -1.8 to -1.3. Analyst

chris.leonard@ubs.com

Most crowded long - Shell +44-20-7568 3958

Shell (+9.9) became the consensus long in Europe, ahead of BP (+9.1) and Ellinor Cederstroem Palliotto

TotalEnergies (+7.1), rising by +2.2 over the month. We think Shell is one of the more Associate Analyst

defensive names in a falling price environment, given its low dividend breakeven, and ellinor-cederstroem.palliotto@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 1823

investor concerns about terminal value having been partly assuaged by the recent ARC

transaction (link).