Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 124" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 124" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 124

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Reported progress in US-Iran talks but no Hormuz breakthrough Analyst

US President Donald Trump said there were"very good meetings" with Iran in Qatar henri.patricot@ubs.com

while Qatari and Pakistani mediators also talked about "positive progress" (link). No +33-14-888 3033

agreement has been reported around the framework for navigation via Hormuz though, Nayoung Kim

as Iran continues to push for a toll. Talks will now pause during the funeral of former Analyst

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which will take place between 4 and 9 July. nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

Flows steady, still more inbound tankers Joshua Stone

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show a similar situation on Analyst

Wednesday compared to Tuesday. The number of oil and gas tanker crossings was joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

virtually unchanged at 18 yesterday, and skewed inbound with 12 tankers entering the

Gulf including 5 crude tankers, which should help with the production restart (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). Josh Silverstein

This is up vs. the June average of 7 crossings, still well below February’s c.50 crossings. Analyst

Volumes were stable at ~8Mboe/d, still below the ~12Mboe/d in the first half of last josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

week, but above the June average of 3.7Mboe/d and May’s 1.3Mboe/d (Figure 4matedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d).

Tom Allen

Lower crude loadings Analyst

tom.allen@ubs.com