US Consumer Staples "The Weekly Tab: Stars, Stripes, and Staples" Grom

Research evidence excerpt

US Consumer Staples "The Weekly Tab: Stars, Stripes, and Staples" Grom

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

US Consumer Staples Equities

AmericasThe Weekly Tab: Stars, Stripes, and Staples

Household Products

Peter Grom

Sharp Underperformance, But Sentiment Improving Analyst

This week, the XLP materially underperformed the S&P 500 by ~342bps through peter.grom@ubs.com

Wednesday's close, marking 8 of the 14 weeks in which Staples have underperformed. +1-212-713 3482

As has been the case the last several weeks, we do not think the price action is Sona Fernandes

suggestive of a shift in sentiment but rather a function of positioning/market rotation. In Analyst

fact, based on our discussions, sentiment across the group appears to be improving at sona.fernandes@ubs.com

the margin, supported by a view that category trends may be holding in better than +1-212-649 8050

expected and that a more stable commodity backdrop could reduce earnings volatility Chirac Ndetan

moving forward. Within the group itself, we have seen meaningful Packaged Food Associate Analyst

outperformance in recent weeks but our conversations would not suggest meaningful chirac.ndetan@ubs.com

shifts in sentiment. While earnings have come in better-than-feared in certain areas (i.e. +1-212-649 7501

MKC and GIS), we think investors remain skeptical that category demand will improve. Arian Chakravarty

Across Beverages and HPC, we continue to see a divergence across names investors are Associate Analyst

willing to own with fundamental visibility vs. those where the risk/reward appears more arian.chakravarty@ubs.com

favorable but the path forward remains less certain. The issue is that fundamental +1-212-713 1474

visibility appears to be more than priced in creating a tricky setup heading into Antara Nag-Chaudhuri