Residential mREITs "2Q26 Book Value Preview: Agency mREITs Poised for..."

Research evidence excerpt

Residential mREITs "2Q26 Book Value Preview: Agency mREITs Poised for..."

Global Research

2 July 2026ab

Residential mREITs Equities

Americas2Q26 Book Value Preview: Agency mREITs Poised

for Strong Economic Returns as MBS Spreads Diversified Financial

Tighten MarissaAnalystLobo

marissa.lobo@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3922

Market conditions in the second quarter of 2026 were supportive for residential mREITs, Cory Johnson

Associate Analystparticularly Agency-focused portfolios. Treasury rates moved higher during the quarter

cory.johnson@ubs.com

as investors repriced Fed expectations, shifting from an easing narrative toward a higher-

+1-212-882 0078

for-longer rate environment. However, meaningful Agency MBS spread tightening more

than offset the headwind from higher rates and a modest bear flattening of the yield

curve, supporting positive economic returns and book value growth across the sector.

We expect Agency-focused mREITs to have outperformed residential credit strategies

during the quarter, although residential credit markets remained constructive,

supported by stable credit performance and continued investor demand.

Economic Returns: We estimate residential mREITs generated economic returns of

approximately 4% during Q2 2026, led by strong performance from Agency-focused

strategies (~7% economic returns versus ~3% for residential credit-focused mREITs).

See Figure 1 for our current book value estimates and projected economic returns. We

believe the primary factors differentiating quarterly performance are:

1. Asset allocation: Agency MBS and MSR strategies likely outperformed most

residential credit sectors during the quarter. Agency portfolios benefited from

meaningful spread tightening while certain residential credit sectors experienced