The Greenbrier Companies: Cuts/narrows F26 car build target; we see some tariff risk; Lower PO to $42

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The Greenbrier Companies: Cuts/narrows F26 car build target; we see some tariff risk; Lower PO to $42

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The Greenbrier Companies

Cuts/narrows F26 car build target; we see

some tariff risk; Lower PO to $42

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 42.00 USD | Price: 47.88 USD

Cuts F26 deliveries at midpoint; we see some tariff risk 02 July 2026

The Greenbrier Companies posted F3Q26 EPS of $0.60, slightly above our $0.57 target, Equity

yet in line with Street’s $0.60. The beat vs our targets was led by below the line items

including a lower tax rate (19.5% vs our 30% target), and above-target earnings from

Key Changesunconsolidated affiliates ($0.10/sh), while core results missed our targets. CEO Lorie

Tekorius noted customers continue to delay long-lived railcar investment decisions amid (US$) Previous Current

macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, GBX slightly lowered its F26 carload delivery target Price Obj. 43.00 42.00

range 1% at the midpoint to 15,650-15,850, narrowing its prior 15,350-16,350 target. 2026E Rev (m) 2,500.4 2,484.2

GBX sees demand as deferred rather than lost, pointing to a stronger inquiry pipeline, 2027E Rev (m) 2,826.2 2,764.4

growing lessor interest, elevated truck rates, lower railcar storage levels, and 2028E Rev (m) 3,083.4 3,043.1

replacement demand that continues to exceed industry deliveries. Management views 2026E EPS 3.20 3.10

tariff risks, both from potential Section 232 tariffs on Mexican-built tank cars and the 2027E EPS 3.80 3.65

ongoing CBP coupler dispute, as manageable, noting contractual pass-through 2028E EPS 4.95 4.75

provisions, manufacturing flexibility, and no current impact on customer ordering. We

believe historical order patterns and tariff exposure are keeping orders muted, yet Ken Hoexter

Research Analyst