CATL (H/A): Sodium-ion ESS LT growth driver; limited impact from potential FCC restrictions

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CATL (H/A): Sodium-ion ESS LT growth driver; limited impact from potential FCC restrictions

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CATL (H/A)

Sodium-ion ESS LT growth driver; limited

impact from potential FCC restrictions

PO: 770.00 HKD | Price: 681.00 HKD

New ESS product launch; upstream pressure to relieve 03 July 2026

In late June CATL launched its Tianheng sodium-ion battery ESS in Munich, featuring a Equity

long cycle life (>15,000 cycles at 25°C), wide temperature adaptability and enhanced

safety standards. CATL targets initial deliveries of its sodium-ion battery ESS in China

Key Changesfrom September 2026, with 1GWh of shipments by end-2026, and overseas shipments

from June 2027. It plans to add 40GWh of sodium-ion battery production capacity in (CNY) Previous Current

Fujian, and an additional 160GWh capacity in Shandong. On the material cost front, spot Price Obj. HK$740 HK$770

lithium carbonate prices have fallen to RMB160k/ton in early-July, down 16% from the 2026E EPS 20.39 21.27

peak level in early May. We expect the upstream cost pressure to gradually ease in 2H26. 2027E EPS 24.39 25.64

2028E EPS 27.55 30.03

2026E EBITDA (m) 136,824 139,858FCC restrictions: limited impact on CATL

According to Reuters, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is drafting new 2027E EBITDA (m) 162,831 170,758

restrictions on imports of foreign-made inverters. Our check suggests that CATL’s 2028E EBITDA (m) 185,126 197,296

revenue exposure to the US market accounts for a mid-to-high single-digit percentage

of total revenue, mostly from ESS battery cells. Currently, CATL mainly supplies battery Ming Hsun Lee, CFA >>

Research Analyst

cells and energy storage cabinets to US customers, including Tesla, Fluence Energy, and Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

NextEra Energy.