Chip-Wreck

Research evidence excerpt

Chip-Wreck

June 23, 2026 Chip-Wreck

Tech/AI Down, but Market Still Rotational in Nature

Jonathan Krinsky, CMT

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW: (332) 400-5152 jkrinsky@btig.comTECHNICAL QQQ gapped down over 2% this morning. Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the

5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the

VIX was below 20. While near-term returns were split,all four of the signals saw QQQ

meaningfully lower over the next month. We know how extreme the upside moves in

semis/AI have been. Meanwhile, divergences have been screaming as the hyperscalers

continue to trade poorly, and in S. Korea you had the KOSPI rally over 4% the last fourSTRATEGY

days when each day had extremely negative breadth. Whether or not we rally in the

short-term, we continue to see medium-term downside risk for the tech/AI trade with

~5% further to go for QQQ and 10-15% more for areas like SOXX. The good news is so

far correlations remain low and this appears to be rotational in nature, with areas like

financials and biotech still looking good to us.

■ QQQ Study. QQQ gapped down over 2% this morning. Since QQQ's inception ('99),

this is just the 5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk

high and the VIX was below 20. The four priors were: 5/16/19, 1/27/20, 2/24/20

and 1/27/25. While near-term returns were split,all four of the signals saw QQQ

meaningfully lower over the next month.

■ How Much Downside? From current levels, we see ~5% more downside for QQQ

and 10-15% for SOXX.

■ What if We Rally? Given the 'buy the dip' mentality, a further rally from today's

lows would not be surprising. QQQ already up more than 1% off session lows as of

10:30et. While we don't foresee recent highs being exceeded in the near-term, we