Keeping Tabs on Tobacco: Global Tobacco Periodical

Research evidence excerpt

Keeping Tabs on Tobacco: Global Tobacco Periodical

Tobacco news flow

Round-up of recent developments and DB reports

HAYPP: Built for the Pouch Era (See DB report)

• Regulation as Catalyst, not a Constraint: We see recent regulatory developments across the US, UK, and EU as increasingly positive for Haypp,

as the leading global online leader. A pragmatic FDA approach in the US, new UK legislation favouring compliant operators, and an EU focus on

harmonisation (not bans) are improving the outlook for NP innovation and availability.

• Significant Upside Potential from US Online Penetration: Haypp's medium-term growth is strongly linked to the US, where online penetration is

currently low (2-3% vs. 36% in Sweden). Our sensitivity analysis indicates that doubling US online penetration to 8-10% by FY28 could lead to a

substantial FY28 EBITDA upgrade of 75% to 150%, driven by improved operating leverage as the market scales.

• Valuation: Despite seemingly demanding near-term earnings multiples, the company's current investment phase and substantial long-term margin

opportunity, reflected in an attractive PEG basis (0.1x-0.3x for CY27/28), lead us to reiterate our Buy, SEK 196 TP

FDA Grants Modified Risk Orders for ZYN Nicotine Pouches (See DB report and FDA press release)

• FDA Grants Modified Risk Orders for 20 ZYN Nicotine Pouches: The US FDA issued Modified Risk Granted Orders (MRGO). for 20 ZYN

nicotine pouches. These orders allow ZYN to be marketed with claims that using them instead of cigarettes reduces the risk of serious health

conditions such as “mouth cancer, heart disease, lung cancer, stroke, emphysema, and chronic bronchitis”.

• US ZYN: We currently forecast US ZYN volume growth at ~5% for Q2, with an expected acceleration to ~20% in H2 2026 (from an inventory-