GLOBAL RESEARCH ARCHIVE
Mgmt Meeting: Confidence High Ahead of Ph3 MASH Topline in 4Q26
Research evidence excerpt
Mgmt Meeting: Confidence High Ahead of Ph3 MASH Topline in 4Q26
etic MASH, followed by F2 diabetic,
F3 non-diabetic, and then F2 non-diabetic patients. IVA previously estimated ~375K diagnosed
F2/F3 MASH patients in the U.S., with 50%+ of these being diabetic. In our meeting, mgmt
expanded the addressable population to ~375K-450K US F2/F3 patients, with the increase due
to the growing MASH awareness and increasing diagnosis rate. Diabetic F3 patients represents
the clearest opportunity to IVA given the high progression risk, metabolic comorbidity, and a
relatively easier risk/benefit discussion around any modest fluid-related weight gain.
We see this segmentation as important for commercial launch framing. Lani’ may be a less
compelling treatment option initially in lower-risk F2 non-diabetics, where patient tolerance of
non-medical edema is higher and urgency to treat is lower. However, if NATiV3 efficacy looks
materially stronger than current approved therapies, especially in fibrosis improvement, mgmt
believes F2 non-diabetics could also become an amenable population for lani'.
Preparation for Phase 3 F4 Outcomes Trial Ongoing
Mgmt confirmed that, per FDA guidance, a MASH outcomes study must be initiated prior to
NDA filing (expected 2027), consistent with expectations for accelerated approval in MASH.
The planned study will focus on high-risk F3/F4 patients with portal hypertension. IVA believes
this population will drive enough outcome events to power the study, while patients are early
enough in their disease to still retain potential to benefit from disease-modifying therapy. Mgmt
indicated protocol work, CRO activity, and site activation/screening are underway. Importantly,
first-patient enrollment is not required prior to filing.
2 TDSecurities.com
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