Banks: H.8 Loans + Interest Rate Update (6/29)

Research evidence excerpt

Banks: H.8 Loans + Interest Rate Update (6/29)

The category seeing the largest increase in loans 2QTD, according to H.8 data,

is nondepository financial institutions loans (NDFI), which is up 4.9% unann. thus far in the quarter,

following NDFI growth in 1Q26 of 5.5%. NDFI growth is up 4.6% unann. for large banks (compared

to up 5.6% in 1Q), and up 6.6% unann. for small banks (compared to 4.7% in 1Q). Consumer loan

growth is 0.9% unannualized 2QTD, following consumer growth in 1Q'26 of 0.4%, largely driven by a

1.0% increase from large banks (vs. +0.1% in 1Q'26), while small banks are trending up 0.5% unann.

(vs. 1.9% in 1Q). C&I loan (excl. NDFI) is above consumer loan growth with data up 4.2% sequential

growth 2QTD above the 10-yr historical 2QTD of 1.7%, following C&I loan growth (excl. NDFI) in

1Q'26 of 2.4%. C&I loan growth 2QTD (excl. NDFI) is being driven by large banks (up 5.0% unann.,

compared to 3.0% in 1Q26) while small banks are up (2.7% 2QTD compared to up 1.1% in 1Q26).

C&I loan growth (incl. NDFI) is up 4.5% unannualized 2QTD above 10-yr historical 2QTD trend of

2.2%, driven by large banks (up 4.8% unann. compared to 4.2% in 1Q26) and small banks (up 3.5%

2QTD compared to up 1.8% in 1Q26). Residential real estate loans are flat unann. thus far in the

quarter, following resi growth in 1Q'26 of 0.1%. Resi growth is down 0.4% sequentially for large

banks (compared to down 0.2% in 1Q), and small banks are up 0.6% unann. (compared to 0.7% in David Chiaverini, CFA * | Equity Analyst

1Q). CRE loan growth has been positive, with data showing an increase of 0.9%, below the 10-yr +1 (212) 778-8554 | dchiaverini@jefferies.com

historical 2QTD increase of 1.1%, following CRE loan growth in 1Q26 of 0.7%. For small banks, CRE Daniel T. Fannon * | Equity Analyst