Mexico & USMCA Noisier, but business as usual

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico & USMCA Noisier, but business as usual

1 July 2026

Mexico & USMCA Economics

Noisier, but business as usual Mexico

◆ As the USMCA review kicked off on 1 July, the US decided to conduct annual Jose Carlos Sanchez

reviews of the pact ChiefHSBCEconomist,Mexico, S.A.,MexicoInstitucion de

Banca Multiple, Grupo Financiero

◆ This scenario implies that the treaty would remain valid at least until 2036, HSBCjose.c.sanchez@hsbc.com.mx

when it expires, with room to negotiate specific parts of it in coming years +52 55 5721 5623

Joseph Incalcaterra, CFA

◆ While this creates uncertainty on the potential changes that could be sought, Head of Latin America (LatAm) Macro Strategy

the current trade framework should continue to support Mexico to strengthen HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

joseph.incalcaterra@us.hsbc.com

supply chains in the region and gain market share in the US +1 212 525 5606

Facts

On 1 July, the day which marked the official start to the USMCA review, the US decided to conduct annual

reviews of the pact. This scenario implies that the current trade framework remains valid, while the three

parties negotiate specific parts of the treaty that could be amended before agreeing to another longer-term

renewal. There is not a specific timeline for negotiations going forward, as annual reviews would imply an

open end to potentially reach a final resolution.

Implications

Recently, our Trade Economists addressed 10 key questions ahead of the USMCA review process (see

USMCA review: Taking stock ahead of 1 July 2026, 29 Jun). There, we indicated that if no agreement is

reached, reviews would continue annually until either an agreement is reached, or the USMCA expires on

1 July 2036 (16 years after it was first implemented). This scenario has been cemented after comments by