Commodity Prices Snapshot Prices fall in June on better Hormuz flow

Research evidence excerpt

Commodity Prices Snapshot Prices fall in June on better Hormuz flow

1 July 2026

Commodity Prices Snapshot EconomicsAllocation & Asset

Global

Prices fall in June on better Hormuz flow

◆ Commodity prices fell 9% m-o-m in June on the US-Iran MoU Jamie Culling

and increased traffic through the Strait of Hormuz Economist, Australia, NZ & Global Commodities HSBC Bank Australia Limited

jamie.culling@hsbc.com.au

◆ While the supply outlook has improved, risks remain; the full +61 2 9006 5042

lagged impact is likely to keep some commodity markets tight Paul Bloxham

Chief Economist, Australia, NZ & Global Commodities

HSBC Bank Australia Limited

◆ Sulphur and some fertiliser prices have remained elevated; paulbloxham@hsbc.com.au

an El Niño and heatwave pose risks for agri-commodities +61 2 9255 2635

Duncan Toms*, CFA

Multi-Asset Strategist

It is still early days HSBC Bank plc

duncan.toms@hsbc.com

+44 20 7991 3025

Global commodity prices fell in June, with our index down by an average of 9% m-o-m,

after having reached its highest level since Q3 2022 in May. In June, this left

* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

commodity prices up 14% year-to-date, down from 25% year-to-date in May. not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

The decline largely reflected the impacts of an improving outlook surrounding the

US-Iran conflict, including increased traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz (see

Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet,

25 June 2026). After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the

US and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up. The Brent oil benchmark

fell to its pre-conflict level, reflecting an improved supply outlook.

Nonetheless, it is still early days.