ILMN: AXELIOS Lands; Launch Manageable, Maybe Even Welcome for Illumina Shares

Research evidence excerpt

ILMN: AXELIOS Lands; Launch Manageable, Maybe Even Welcome for Illumina Shares

EQUITY RESEARCH QUICK TAKE

RBC Capital Markets, LLC

Dan Leonard (Analyst)

June 29, 2026

Illumina, Inc

AXELIOS Lands; Launch Manageable, Maybe Even Welcome for Illumina Shares

NASDAQ: ILMN | USD 181.10 | Outperform | Price Target USD 170.00

Sentiment: Positive

Our Outperform rating on Illumina (ILMN) reflects a view that the company's clinical momentum is durable and competitive

concerns are fading. On the latter point, Roche announced today the launch of its AXELIOS 1 -- consistent with prior

communication (summer 2026) but earlier than we expected (we were thinking September). We think this competitive entry

is manageable in the context of our Illumina forecast. A launched AXELIOS might actually be better for Illumina's stock --

replacing an open-ended fear with a diligence-able, tangible reality.

For Illumina's research consumables -- AXELIOS's initial target market -- we forecast flat growth from 2027 - 2028, following

a high-single digit decline in 2026. This forecast is our best effort to account for competitive entry as well as market softness.

Diagnostics share will be harder to move initially, given the regulatory moat, and we believe low to mid-teens consumables

growth over this same time period is sustainable. For sequencing instrument demand, we believe our 2026 forecast is

supported by backlog, while we're already forecasting a 5% decline in Illumina's sequencing instrument sales next year.

As a reminder, the feedback on Roche's AXELIOS following the Advances in Genome Biology and Technology (AGBT) annual

meeting in late February was mixed, and we didn't hear anything to sufficiently refute concerns at Roche's Diagnostics Investor

Day in May.