Australian Research at a Glance - June 30, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Research at a Glance - June 30, 2026

AUSTRALIAN RESEARCH AT A GLANCE

Company Comments

Gordon Ramsay (Analyst) Karoon Energy Ltd. (ASX: KAR; 1.38)

+61 3 8688 6578; gordon.ramsay@rbccm.com Published June 29 2026 15:25:00 EDT

Alistair Rankin (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6551; alistair.rankin@rbccm.com Baúna SPS-92 restart and 2026 capex increase

Rating: Sector Perform

Price Target: 2.25 ↓ 2.30

Our view: The Baúna SPS-92 production well has restarted at a relatively strong

initial level, plus the PRA-2 restart is expected to add further oil volumes in Brazil.

New 2026 capex guidance has increased significantly in Brazil, partly offset by

a downward adjustment in the US (Who Dat). Karoon is unhedged and has the

highest oil price leverage in our Australian E&P coverage universe. While Karoon's

production outlook is now looking more certain, we remain cautious with respect

to future capex. Oil price uncertainty also lingers.

Industry Comments

Matthew McKellar, CFA (Analyst) Paper, Packaging & Forest Products

(403) 476-9042; matthew.mckellar@rbccm.com Published June 29 2026 00:23:10 EDT

The Continuous Digester – What we learned this week

U.S. UFS prices moved higher in June; North American demand was down 7.3%

y/y in May. According to RISI, prices for 50-lb offset rolls and 20-lb copy paper

were up $20/ton in June to $1,450/ton and $1,585/ton, respectively, following

recent capacity reductions and persistent cost pressures, despite demand trends

remaining weak. Our price deck assumed no increase in June, but a $35/ton

increase in July. According to the PPPC, North American UFS production in May

was flat y/y, while demand decreased 7.3%. North American shipments of UFS

were also down 7.3% y/y, and net imports were down 10.6% y/y (+5.4% m/m).