Paper, Packaging & Forest Products

Research evidence excerpt

Paper, Packaging & Forest Products

RBC Dominion Securities Inc.

Matthew McKellar, CFA

(Analyst)

(403) 476-9042,

matthew.mckellar@rbccm.com

Amit Prasad, CFA (Associate)

(403) 476-7417,

amit.prasad@rbccm.com

June 29, 2026

Paper, Packaging & Forest ProductsRESEARCH The Continuous Digester – What we learned this week

U.S. UFS prices moved higher in June; North American demand was down 7.3% y/y in May. According

to RISI, prices for 50-lb offset rolls and 20-lb copy paper were up $20/ton in June to $1,450/ton and

$1,585/ton, respectively, following recent capacity reductions and persistent cost pressures, despite

demand trends remaining weak. Our price deck assumed no increase in June, but a $35/ton increase

in July. According to the PPPC, North American UFS production in May was flat y/y, while demand

decreased 7.3%. North American shipments of UFS were also down 7.3% y/y, and net imports were

down 10.6% y/y (+5.4% m/m). Net imports represented 15.6% of demand, compared to 16.2% ofEQUITY

demand in May 2025. The UFS industry operating rate decreased 7 pp y/y to 85%, although we expect

this calculation likely includes capacity from Riverdale #16 machine (which IP is converting to produce

containerboard), and we expect the UFS operating rate to increase in June.

Louisiana Pacific broke ground on a new ExpertFinish facility in North Branch, Minnesota. The

company expects the 350k sq. ft. facility to begin production in Q128. It will be LP's fourth ExpertFinish

location, and the company noted it will be the largest and most efficient in its network.

Smurfit Westrock will close its Lebanon, Tennessee folding carton facility on August 14. According to

the Nashville Business Journal, production will be transferred to other Smurfit Westrock facilities as part