BMO China Chart Pack: Mobilising for the Next Trade War

Research evidence excerpt

BMO China Chart Pack: Mobilising for the Next Trade War

June 29, 2026 | 15:39 ET~

BMO Global Commodities Research

BMO China Chart Pack: Mobilising for the Next Trade BMO Global Commodities Research

War Helen Amos Analyst

helen.amos@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8180

George Heppel Analyst

Bottom Line: george.heppel@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7664 8106

Chinese economic conditions soured further this month, with fixed asset investment Alona Yunda Senior Associate

and retail sales continuing to fall, while manufacturing flat-lined amid rising energy alona.yunda@bmo.com +44 (0) 789 479 7518

costs. While some defensive measures have been announced (notably for the auto Walid Hasanzadeh Associate

sector), new support elsewhere has been limited, and we will have to wait and see if walid.hasanzadeh@bmo.com +44 (0)20 7872 156589

Beijing chooses to double down on demand stimulus measures or return to fixed asset Legal Entity: BMO Capital Markets Limited

investment. Meanwhile, China's efforts to increase its clout in metals trading remains

See also...

a key theme this month, something that is likely to fray struggling U.S.-China relations

Q3 2026 Metals & Bulk Commodity Price Update:ahead of the negotiation of a new trade agreement later this year. Beijing is already

Fundamentals Laid Bareshowing signs of preparing for a new trade war, with the new Mineral Resources Law

giving Beijing access to strong countermeasures if Chinese supply chains are blocked.

Key Points

China’s economic woes continue. YTD fixed asset investment continued to slide in

May, declining by 4.1% y/y, driven mainly by lacklustre property investment, though

manufacturing investment is shrinking too. On the consumer side, retail sales ticked

down 0.6% y/y despite the early-May Labour Day Holiday, giving the worst reading