Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview: Asia – Macro Catalysts: China Inflation, Taiwan Trade, and BNM Expected to Hike

Research evidence excerpt

Asia/Pacific Weekly Preview: Asia – Macro Catalysts: China Inflation, Taiwan Trade, and BNM Expected to Hike

Idea

July 3, 2026 03:36 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+MAsia/Pacific Weekly Preview | Asia Pacific Derrick Y Kam

Asia Economist

Asia – Macro Catalysts: China Derrick.Kam@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +65 6834-8272

Robin Xing

Chief China EconomistInflation, Taiwan Trade, and Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+BNM Expected to Hike Takeshi Yamaguchi

Chief Japan Economist

We expect China's June CPI to moderate to 1.0%Y. Taiwan's Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5404

exports are expected to edge higher to 66%Y in June. We expect Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Upasana Chachra

BNM to raise rates to 3%. Chief India Economist

Upasana.Chachra@morganstanley.com +91 22 6118-2246

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+Key Takeaways

Kathleen Oh

We provide a list of macro catalysts across Asia for July 6-12. Chief Korea/Taiwan Economist

Kathleen.Oh@morganstanley.com +852 2848-7340

China's CPI should moderate on lower domestic fuel and gold prices and subdued

consumption demand, partly offset by a modest uptick in food prices. Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

Chris Read

Its PPI likely slipped to 0.1%M (vs. 0.5%M in May) on easing oil prices, but it Equity Strategist and Australia Economist

could rise to ~4.5% YoY on a low base. Chris.Read@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1513

Taiwan's exports may grow at 66%Y in June, up from 52%Y in May, driven by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Jonathan Cheung

continued strength in semiconductor exports. Economist

Jonathan.Cheung@morganstanley.com +852 2848-5652

We expect BNM to hike rates to 3%, reflecting trailing strong growth and

Kelly Wang