In case you missed it, Aussie Most Read Publications 23 Jun to 29 Jun 2026

Research evidence excerpt

In case you missed it, Aussie Most Read Publications 23 Jun to 29 Jun 2026

Jason Steed AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61-2) 9003-8609 03 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

jason.h.steed@jpmorgan.com

JDO has provided a trading update for FY26, and initial guidance for FY27. The midpoint of the FY26 PBT range implies a ~8%

downgrade to our forecast, while guidance for FY27 implies a ~15% downgrade. The downgrade for FY26 reflects an increase

in credit cost guidance, which more than offsets a small upgrade to NIM guidance. Implied PBT for FY26 looks to be slightly

above JPMe. Drivers of FY27 guidance were not provided, but we think the downgrade is probably mostly driven by credit

costs, perhaps with a smaller revenue component. Despite an improved capital position and cheap valuation, JDO’s recent

trend of disappointing credit quality updates is likely to weigh significantly on the stock.

Judo Bank (Andrew Triggs) (JDO AU, OW, PT A$1.45)

Trading update: Further surprises on credit test faith in the model, but arguably priced in at ~0.5x

book value

Judo Bank posted a surprise downgrade to FY26 earnings guidance driven by higher credit impairment expenses, more than

offsetting better NIM trends. This drives a 9% downgrade to our FY26 PBT forecast. FY27 guidance was also provided for the

first time and drives a 16% downgrade to our FY27 forecasts. The FY26 impairment commentary is unhelpful, given that JDO

completed a detailed file review at the 3Q26 trading update, with new issues in three customer exposures identified in recent

weeks. While we do think the market has overreacted (share price -40% vs. ASX 200 broadly flat), we understand concerns

about JDO’s limited visibility on underlying customer performance, likely accentuated by its lack of transaction account data for