ABNB: 2Q:26 EPS Preview: Trimming 2H Modestly; Bull Case Intact

Research evidence excerpt

ABNB: 2Q:26 EPS Preview: Trimming 2H Modestly; Bull Case Intact

Equity Research

Earnings Revised — June 29, 2026

Internet

Airbnb, Inc.

2Q:26 EPS Preview: Trimming 2H Modestly; Bull Case Overweight

Intact Price Target: $181.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Jan) Current Prior % Chg

No change to bullish view. Taking modest 1pt cut to 2H to account for prolonged ME EBITDA 4.98B 5.01B -0.6%

conflict scenario. Encouraged by hotel supply rollout and more rapid pace of product (MM) 2026

innovation. Management confidence in '27 growth post-RNPL benefits key for shares. EBITDA 5.96B 5.98B -0.3%

(MM) 2027

EPS 2026 5.05 5.03 0.3%

Expect 3Q:26 nights guide to +HSD Y/Y growth, steady with 2Q, and we trim our 3Q

nights estimate to incorporate continued impact from ME conflict. Reduce 2H:26 EPS 2027 6.21 6.23 -0.3%

nights growth estimates ~110bps in each 3Q/4Q:26 to +8.4%/+8.3% (vs. cons +8.6%/

+8.2%). While RNPL tailwinds fade slightly in 2H:26 (WFSe ~90bps/~75bps benefit in Ticker ABNB

3Q/4Q vs. ~105bps in 2Q), believe our 2H cuts incorporate more conservative macro Upside/(Downside) to Target 23.0%

scenario and create a cleaner setup for ’27 acceleration as impacted regions normalize. Price (06/29/2026) $147.17

52 Week Range $110.81 - 150.19

Bull case still intact w/ no change to '27/'28 nights ests, as any 2H weakness reflects Market Cap (MM) $89,479

demand disruption timing, adding to '27 acceleration. Remain bullish for reasons behind Enterprise Value (MM) $79,949

our upgrade: more aggressive hotel supply/merchandising w/ checks showing broader Average Daily Value (MM) $555

hotel pilots across more cities, loyalty ramp, and AI search lifting conversion. See ABNB

Dividend Yield 0.0%

nearly doubling OTA hotel share to 8.6% in '28 from 4.8% currently in core 5 markets, w/