U.S. Autos & Mobility: June US Sales Report Card: Halftime report - industry continues exceeding expectations

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Autos & Mobility: June US Sales Report Card: Halftime report - industry continues exceeding expectations

's 13.5%

'25 share was up from 12.9% in '24, and GM's 17.3% '25 share was up from 16.8% in '24.

However, both OEMs lost share in 1H26, with Ford tracking at 12.6% (-90bps from FY25) and

GM at 16.8% (-60bps from FY25). Both OEMs have been dragged by weaker industry-wide

large pickup share (1H26 13.2% vs FY25 13.5%). Ford's share has also been dragged by weaker

F-Series volume given ongoing Novelis supply chain constraints, while GM has been dragged

by weaker industry wide EV volumes (GM was #2 EV seller in the US in '25).

STLA's market share declined in '25, at 7.5% vs. 8.2% in '24. Share trended more positively in

1H26, up to 7.9%. However, 2Q share of 7.7% was weaker than 8.2% in 1Q, with June's 7.6%

result quite soft. Moreover, we suspect that STLA has been leaning more heavily on fleet sales,

which generally carries lower margins than retail.

Into 2H, we suspect D3 share could see some recovery. Ford specifically should see

improvements as production/sales of F-Series pickups increases as Novelis supply comes

back online. At 1Q earnings, GM noted plans to increase production and inventory of key

vehicles over the coming quarters to reverse some of the 1Q share losses, and we could see

tailwinds to share in 2H.

• Mix considerations: D3 OEMs should continue to see benefits from overall vehicle mix in

2H, with softened emissions standards enabling a higher mix of large vehicles (pickups, large

SUVs) to be sold; mix was a benefit for both Ford and GM in 1Q.

That said, amid elevated retail gas prices (even after pricing has declined over the past 6

weeks), we believe mix is a point to watch. Retail gas prices most negatively impact large

pickups and large SUVs: