Eli Lilly & Co: Daily Foundayo data through 6/30; weekly estimation for week ending 6/26

Research evidence excerpt

Eli Lilly & Co: Daily Foundayo data through 6/30; weekly estimation for week ending 6/26

Equity Research

U.S. Biopharmaceuticals

2 July 2026

Eli Lilly & Co

Daily Foundayo data through 6/30;

weekly estimation for week

LLY OVERWEIGHTending 6/26

U.S. Biopharmaceuticals NEUTRAL

Using a flat capture rate to the week prior, we estimate Week Price Target USD 1400.00

12 of weekly TRx to be 21,169, or +2.8% w/w. Assuming a Price (01-Jul-26) USD 1191.74

weekly/actual capture rate of 90%, extrapolating through PotentialSource: Bloomberg,Upside/DownsideBarclays Research +17.5%

data as of 6/30, this suggests ~106k total Foundayo patients.

IQVIA Daily Data through Tuesday 6/30/2026 + our estimation for Weekly Data ending Emily Field, CFA

+1 212 526 41606/26/2026: We update our Foundayo model to estimate IQVIA weekly TRx (will be reported

emily.field@barclays.com

tomorrow 6AM EST) by using daily TRx and last week's daily/weekly capture rate (21.0%). We

BCI, US

estimate Week 12 of weekly TRx to be ~21,169, or +2.8% vs. Week 11's 20,594. Furthermore,

assuming a weekly/actual capture rate of 90% (which LLY flagged as the capture rate for 2Q26 Hang Hu, PhD

+1 212 526 6364Foundayo scripts QTD), extrapolating this data through Daily TRx as of 6/30/26, this suggests a

hang.hu@barclays.com

total of ~106K patients on Foundayo. For our comment on last week's data, see: Daily Foundayo

data through 6/23; weekly estimation for week ending 6/19 (06/25/2026).

Alexandre Bouilloux

Daily Foundayo TRx Data through June 30th: We updated our Daily IQVIA Foundayo tracker +1 212 526 9937

with data through Tuesday, June 30th (882 TRx vs. 801 TRx the day prior). We plot data points alexandre.bouilloux@barclays.com

below, noting that w/w growth remains robust generally in DD%, but there remains a high BCI, US