Nordic Insurance: Regulatory noise unhelpful

Research evidence excerpt

Nordic Insurance: Regulatory noise unhelpful

Equity Research

2 July 2026

Nordic Insurance

Regulatory noise unhelpful

Norwegian VAT proposal adds another regulatory overhang

for Nordic insurers, although it is still uncertain whether the

proposal will become effective. Ahead of 2Q26, we expect European Insurance NEUTRAL

Unchangedpositive underlying trends and strong capital position.

European Insurance

Alessia Magni, CFANorwegian VAT proposal - Norwegian Non-life insurers could face a structural shift in their

+44 (0)20 3555 7393

taxing system as the Ministry of Finance is reviewing a proposal to introduce VAT on Non-Life

alessia.magni@barclays.com

insurers replacing the existing financial sector tax. We expect companies to be able to pass- Barclays, UK

through to customers a premium increase of at least c.5% based on our calculations to offset

Claudia Gaspariany negative impact from the introduction of VAT. The Ministry of Finance must develop a

+44 (0)20 3134 6039

formal proposal and decide if and what is ultimately presented to Parliament. If adopted,

claudia.gaspari@barclays.com

implementation is expected in 2028. We expect GJF, Tryg and Sampo to remain in focus and see Barclays, UK

this additional overhang unhelpful for the sub-sector after the YTD de-rating.

FIGURE 1. Unhelpful regulatory noise amid an already challenging YTD performance

10% 3%

5% -10%

-13% -11% -10%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

Alm.Brand GJF Sampo Tryg Sector

YTD 2027 P/E 2027 EPS change YTD

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Earning changes ahead of 2Q26 results - Overall, we expect the second quarter to confirm the

recent trends in top line growth with pricing tailwind continuing to ease. The quarter is likely

to be characterized by weather and large losses broadly in line with company guidance, while