Japan Economic Comment "Tankan: Solid corporate sentiment with hawkish..."

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Economic Comment "Tankan: Solid corporate sentiment with hawkish..."

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

Japan Economic Comment Economics

JapanTankan: Solid corporate sentiment with hawkish

price setting stance Go Kurihara

Associate Economist

go.kurihara@ubs.com

+81-3-5293 3000

Despite Middle East tensions, business sentiment remains historically high

The BoJ’s Tankan survey released today confirms that corporate sentiment remains

robust overall. While we had expected large firms’ business conditions DI to deteriorate

by 1pt due to instability in the Middle East, the actual result showed a 2-point

improvement to 29, marking the highest level since 1991. Given that the survey period

(May 28–June 30) overlaps with the June 18 US–Iran memorandum signing,

expectations for an end to conflict may have been partially priced in. Even so, the record-

high reading represents a positive surprise. Meanwhile, mid-sized firms declined by 1pt

to 22 and small firms were unchanged at 13, leaving overall sentiment across all firms

flat but at a record high at 18.

Looking at the breakdown for large firms, manufacturing rose sharply by 5pt to 22,

while non-manufacturing increased modestly by 1pt to 37, indicating a stronger

acceleration in the former. In addition to yen depreciation, demand related to AI likely

provided a significant tailwind, with notable gains in production machinery (+10pt),

electrical machinery (+7pt), and non-ferrous metals (+13pt). Non-manufacturing also

reached its highest level since 1991 with the modest increase. This is consistent with

strong private consumption supported by rising real wages and resilient inbound

demand. Consumer-facing sectors saw particularly large improvements, including retail