Global I/O Smartphones "UBS Evidence Lab Inside 2Q26 Smartphone Survey:..."

Research evidence excerpt

Global I/O Smartphones "UBS Evidence Lab Inside 2Q26 Smartphone Survey:..."

Global I/O Smartphones UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP MOSTSector ThesisFAVOREDMap LEAST FAVORED

MediaTek, Samsung (APAC Key Call Buy), Hua Hong, Lenovo, LG Display, Maxscend,

ASE, Broadcom, Hon Hai, Micron, SK Hynix, Pegatron, Xiaomi (Neutral), Sunny Optical

TSMC (Buy) (Sell)

Pivotal Questions Q: To what extent will rising memory prices pressure BOM costs?

We now estimate memory to account for 40% of the bill of material (BOM) costs of

flagship/premium smartphones and 59% of those of mid-range/lower-end smartphones by

4Q27E, based on our current base case scenario of the DRAM/NAND upcycle extending until at least

2Q28E/4Q27E. We believe this has been and, will continue to be, a challenge for smartphone OEMs,

as increasing costs continue to (1) weigh on product margins and (2) ASP hikes designed to offset

such pressure pose significant downside risk to end demand. We believe these incremental cost

pressures will be more manageable for Apple and, to a lesser extent, Samsung while more

detrimental for others.

Q: How are major smartphone OEMs faring?

On the back of (1) stable retention rates, (2) ideal product mix, and (3) relative insulation to

memory cost pressure, we believe Apple and, to a lesser extent, Samsung remain the best

positioned OEMs.The UBS 2Q26 Smartphone Survey indicates retention rates and 12-month

forward purchase intent for iPhones and Samsung smartphones remain resilient and well ahead of

their Chinese peers. Given market conditions in which memory costs continue to weigh on mid-

range/lower-end smartphone demand, we expect to see an increasingly polarized smartphone

market, characterized by (1) the significant outperformance of Apple and, to a lesser extent,