Thai Hospitality "Market may look through soft Q226 earnings" Friestad

Research evidence excerpt

Thai Hospitality "Market may look through soft Q226 earnings" Friestad

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

Thai Hospitality Equities

ThailandMarket may look through soft Q226 earnings

Lodging

Sukrit Friestad

Is the market really going to look through a weak Q2? Analyst

Following the announcement of US-Iran deal talks in mid-June, market sentiment sukrit.friestad@ubs.com

towards Thai tourism names has turned more constructive, reflecting expectations of a +662-613 5732

faster recovery in inbound tourism by Q426. This has been partly reinforced by Alex Manoonpol

government agencies revising forecasts, citing a less negative than expected impact Analyst

from the Middle East conflict. Investor focus has accordingly shifted from downside risks alex.manoonpol@ubs.com

to EPS in 2026, particularly after the upcoming Q226 results, to the pace of recovery in +662-613 5770

H226, with some investors suggesting the market may look through weak upcoming

Q226 earnings. In our view, this positioning understates the risk of earnings revisions.

Our 2026E EPS estimates remain c.10% below consensus for Centel and AWC, and we

believe further cuts to Thai centric hotel forecasts are likely. However, these revisions

may have a limited near-term valuation impact, as Q2 to Q3 represents the seasonal

trough for Thai tourism, meaning even a material earnings miss may not translate into

significant full year EPS revisions. In the context of a more constructive H226 outlook,

downside risks are increasingly tied to adverse data points, particularly signs of a

slowdown in Chinese visitor arrivals, which could act as a catalyst for a de-rating. At

current levels, AWC and Centel trade at c.40x and 23x 2026E PE, respectively, with sub-

10% EPS growth pa over 2026E–27E.