US Daily Data Recap "CPIP revisions, ISM, ADP, Challenger and more" Wilcox

Research evidence excerpt

US Daily Data Recap "CPIP revisions, ISM, ADP, Challenger and more" Wilcox

Education and health services employment remained solid, up 48K. Trade,

transportation and utilities employment rose 15K, financial activities employment rose

14K, and information employment rose 7K. Leisure and hospitality employment, which

we'll be watching in the June BLS employment report for potential world cup impacts,

rose 2K in the June ADP data.

The ADP data is barely correlated with the BLS private payroll employment data with a ADP and BLS estimates of private

correlation coefficient of 0.12 over the two years through May. Year-to-date, the employment changes are essentially

correlation is -0.04. Over the 12 months of 2025, the correlation coefficient is negative, uncorrelated over the past two years.

-0.33, and over the 12 months of 2024 the correlation coefficient is -0.05. Also, the

estimated ADP level of private employment is 3.0 million workers below the BLS

estimate as of May. What signal to take from the ADP data remains unclear to us. For

tomorrow's BLS employment report, we expect total nonfarm payroll employment rose

80K and private payroll employment rose 70K. Such a report would give the

FOMC another month of resilience. See our preview on page 30 of last week's

US Economics Weekly, "Big week for macro next week."

Figure 1: ADP private payroll employment up 98K

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Source: ADP, Haver, UBS

Job cut announcements at 71K in June, AI leads reasons for cuts again

Job cut announcements fell 11K to 72K on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June,

according to the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. On a not-seasonally-

adjusted basis, job cuts fell -51K to 46K, roughly on par with the 48K not-seasonally-