US Economic Perspectives "No USMCA Renewal: What Now?" Watt

Research evidence excerpt

US Economic Perspectives "No USMCA Renewal: What Now?" Watt

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

US Economic Perspectives Economics

AmericasNo USMCA Renewal: What Now?

Abigail Watt

Economist

Today, US Trade Representative (USTR) Greer announced that the US "did not agree to abigail.watt@ubs.com

+1-212-882 6929

renew the USMCA in its current form" and that the "United States will continue to

engage with Mexico and Canada to address the Agreement’s shortcomings and [our] Rafael De La Fuente

trade deficits with these countries. However, the Agreement remains in force pending Economist

resolution of these issues or until the Agreement’s termination." See the press release rafael.delafuente@ubs.com

+1-203-719 7127

here. It is important to note right up top that the USMCA remains in existence, exactly as

it did yesterday. It just now expires in 2036 absent a renewed deal to given the treaty a Jonathan Pingle

new 16-year lease of life. Economist

jonathan.pingle@ubs.com

+1-212-713 2225

No renewal, but ongoing talks instead

Although Mexico and Canada had signaled their willingness to renew the deal for Andrea Casaverde

another 16 years at the official review date, the US decision will not have caught them by

andrea.casaverde@ubs.com

surprise. From their standpoint, we think what is critical at this stage is that the US +1-203-713-2515

remains engaged in trade talks and remains part of USMCA (specifically, the US has not

Amanda Wilcoxgiven the required six -month notice if it were to abandon the deal nor has it signaled its

intention to do so). Mexican Minister of the Economy Marcelo Ebrard emphasized that

amanda.wilcox@ubs.com

"the treaty remains in force until 2026 as we move to an annual review process," and +1-212-713 3899

but that process "...