Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC "GEA approval & launch in sight, 2Q update likely..."

Research evidence excerpt

Jazz Pharmaceuticals PLC "GEA approval & launch in sight, 2Q update likely..."

To % ch Cons.

impactful catalyst than potential NCCN inclusion.

Q1 6.35 6.35 0 6.34

The recent failure of the Ph3 confirmatory LAGOON trial poses some risk to Q2E 6.49 6.29 -3 6.18

Zepzelca's positioning in 2L SCLC. Historically, FDA action has been mixed on Q3E 6.71 6.57 -2 6.39

pulling drugs from the mkt after they fail confirmatory trials. We believe it is Q4E 4.64 4.87 5 6.44

unlikely that the FDA will pull Zepzelca's 2L use. Notably, Zepzelca 2L sales 12/26E 24.86 24.77 -0 25.37

represent only ~6% of JAZZ's total peak sales. Net, we do not see this trial failure 12/27E 27.94 27.91 -0 25.75

12/28E 32.01 31.98 -0 29.01

as a major setback, regardless of the FDA's ultimate decision.

Ashwani Verma

Sleep franchise should remain stable through competitor updates Analyst

Tris Pharma's (private company) PDUFA date for TRN-257 (narcolepsy/IH) was set for ash.verma@ubs.com

June 20. Notably, no decision has been posted (by FDA or mgmt). If TRN-257 receives +1-212-713 4059

approval from the FDA, we reiterate that there is limited downside for JAZZ (see prior Natalie McArthur

commentary). '26-'27 is a catalyst rich year for narcolepsy/IH treatments. See recent Associate Analyst

KOL call replay for orexin/generic commentary. Despite anticipated Xyrem erosion, we natalie.mcarthur@ubs.com

reiterate that the sleep base business is holding up well. Notably, Xywav pt starts are still +1-212-882 5796

growing and we anticipate sequential growth for 2Q. Note that the formulary status for So Youn Shim

Xywav has also remained relatively unchanged in the last 6 mo which we see as a Analyst

positive indicator (Figure 3CatalysttableforJAZ). so-youn.shim@ubs.com

+1-212-713 4331