Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 123" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 123" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 123

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

US-Iran talks continue Analyst

The US and Iran are holding technical talks in Doha, according to diplomatic sources henri.patricot@ubs.com

(link). Hormuz remains the main focus for now and Iran is reportedly insisting on +33-14-888 3033

charging some kind of fee for crossing Hormuz at the end of the 60-day negotiation Nayoung Kim

period (link). Analyst

nayoung.kim@ubs.com

Flows bounce back, more inbound tankers +44-20-7568 4010

The latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access Dataset) show that flows via the Strait of Joshua Stone

Hormuz bounced back on Tuesday after last week's attacks: oil and gas tankers crossing Analyst

were back up to 17 yesterday, and skewed inbound with 11 tankers entering the Gulf joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

including 7 crude tankers, which should help with the production restart (Figure 1Oil&gastankerspasingthroughtheStraitofHormuz,innumberofshipsenteringandexitingtheGulf). The

June average ended up at nearly 7 crossings per day, vs. the April-May average of c.3, Josh Silverstein

still materially below February’s c.50 crossings. Volumes were up as well to 8.3Mboe/d, Analyst

still below the ~12Mboe/d in the first half of last week. The June average was 3.7Mboe/ josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

d vs. May’s 1.3Mboe/d (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d).

Tom Allen

Crude loadings steady for now Analyst

tom.allen@ubs.com

The influx of tankers into the Gulf has yet to translate into higher loadings. Crude +61-3-9242 6237

loadings in the Gulf remained around 5Mb/d ex-Iran on Tuesday.