First Read: National Beverage Corp "Better Than Feared 4Q On Top Line, But..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: National Beverage Corp "Better Than Feared 4Q On Top Line, But..."

Global Research

1 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesNational Beverage Corp

Better Than Feared 4Q On Top Line, But Margin Americas

Pressure In Focus Soft Drinks

12-month rating Sell

12m price target US$33.00

Initial Reaction: Mixed

Heading into this afternoon's print, our conversation with investors suggested that

sentiment on FIZZ remained negative, with shares underperforming on both an absolute Price (01 Jul 2026) US$31.80

and relative basis driven by concerns around weaker takeaway trends and fear that RIC: FIZZ.O BBG: FIZZ US

higher input costs could pressure the company's margin trajectory looking out to FY27.

Trading data and key metrics

Against this backdrop, we believe the results this evening were marginally better than

feared despite the EPS miss, particularly as volume trends, while below our forecast, 52-wk range US$47.69-31.20

came in marginally ahead of buyside expectations based on our discussions. Market cap. US$2.98b

Additionally, the company declared a special dividend in celebration of America's 250th Shares o/s 93.7m (COM)

anniversary, which we think is helping contribute to the positive reaction after market Free float 25%

(+7.6%). With the stock having underperformed considerably over the past couple of Avg. daily volume ('000) 315

weeks and taking into account the print/dividend, we are not surprised by the reaction Avg. daily value (m) US$10.9

on the surface. That said, we do not think the print will be viewed as thesis changing as Common s/h equity (04/26E) US$0.64b

top line growth has proven elusive for some time and if the 4Q exit rate is indicative of P/BV (04/26E) 4.6x

the margin trajectory, this could be a sign of further EPS pressure looking ahead.