Global Oil Fundamentals "Oil price update: path to normalisation" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil Fundamentals "Oil price update: path to normalisation" Patricot

Global Oil Fundamentals UBS Research

Global Oil Market

UBS Scenario Oil price forecast ($/bbl)

We expect Brent to bounce back to $80/bbl over the rest of the

year. While some flows through the Strait of Hormuz have Oil price fore cast ($/ bbl)

resumed, a full return to normal will likely depend on resolving

outstanding issues following the MoU. Even if a final agreement

is reached, normalisation would be gradual. We also believe

that the market is likely to factor in a structurally higher risk

premium to a certain extent, as tensions are likely to linger. A

limited supply response and the need to rebuild inventories

should also support prices in 2027. Looking further out, rising

efficiency and EVs' increasing impact should see demand Source: UBS estimates, Datastream.

growth slow sharply and peak oil reached by 2030, although

this is likely to be followed by a long plateau rather than a sharp

drop. We expect global spare capacity to decline as non-OPEC

supply growth slows down more rapidly than oil demand

growth, limiting the negative impact on prices and keeping

long-term marginal cost around $75/bbl

Upside price scenarios UBS S/D balance and implied stock change (Mb/d)

In the near term, we see the main potential upside risk coming

from a breakdown of the MoU, which could lead to renewed ed

strikes and disruptions, pushing oil prices back to ~$100+/bbl. If pli

major oil infrastructure in the region is targeted and the conflict

extends beyond the summer, prices could spike to $120+/bbl. im

This would drive more severe demand destruction, with limited and

OPEC+ ability to act. While such a price may be short-lived, a nce

structurally higher risk premium could keep prices in the $80s/