North American Oil & Gas "Updating U.S. Nat Gas S/D Model - Long-Term..."

Research evidence excerpt

North American Oil & Gas "Updating U.S. Nat Gas S/D Model - Long-Term..."

Updating Natural Gas Supply/Demand Model

Key Demand Drivers

We forecast that total 2026 gas demand averages 118.0Bcfpd, down -0.6Bcfpd from

our initial estimate in Dec 2025. We adjust our long-term 2030 total demand projection

from 136.1Bcfpd to 138.8Bcfpd due mostly to a 1.6Bcfpd uptick expected in 2030

PowerGen demand. We continue to see rising LNG exports and PowerGen demand as

the key growth drivers in our outlook, but residential/commercial demand can swing

meaningfully on a y-o-y basis, as it did in the 2024-25 and 2025-26 winter periods.

LNG Exports: We adjust our FY26 LNG exports forecast from 18.6Bcfpd to 18.9Bcfpd.

The startup of Golden Pass and Corpus Cristi 3 has supported higher volumes. We

model a similar 2027-30 capacity buildout schedule, but increase our utilization

assumption to 80% from 75% to account for new offtake agreements signed post the

Middle East conflict. Our 2030 LNG exports forecast increases by 1.5Bcfpd to 29.7Bcfpd

on this change.

Figure 4: LNG Capacity Buildout (2020-2030E)

LNG Cap acity B uild out (202 0-20 30E)

Source: UBS Research, Company Reports

While we still see LNG export demand reaching 28-30Bcfpd levels by 2030, the pre-FID

projects with startup dates post 2028/29 are subject to delays in a potential less

favorable market condition. Cancellation is also possible, but we view this as less likely to

occur than a delay. For example, the Lake Charles LNG facility was canceled late last year.

Additionally, a key swing factor for LNG export demand will be the utilization rate.

Beyond weather, the ramp in Qatar's NFE/NFS/NFW projects alongside the growth in

U.S. capacity additions, will lead to a relatively well-supplied Global LNG market after

2026.