Voltalia (1K) | Buy | Steep discount, with repositioning underway

Research evidence excerpt

Voltalia (1K) | Buy | Steep discount, with repositioning underway

#EstimatesRevision

Release date: 03 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile BuyVoltalia

France | Utilities Beta Profile: MCap: EUR932.4M

Target Price: EUR9.00 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: VLTSA FP Reuters: VLTSA.PA

Current Price: EUR7.11 Change in Sales: 6.1% 26E/15.8% 27E Free float 25%

Up/downside: 26.6% Change in Adj EBIT: -28.8% 26E/-3.2% 27E Avg. daily volume (EURm) 1.4

YTD abs performance -8.7% Market data: 02 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: 5.1% 26E/74.4% 27E

52-week high/low (EUR) 9.01/5.95

Steep discount, with repositioning underway Price performance

Why this report?

Voltalia continues to trade at one of the steepest discounts in the sector.

Certainly, the impact of the imposed Brazilian curtailments on Voltalia’s

assets and the downward revision on earnings expectations from

restructuring effects have created some pressure on the name. Curtailments

for now are expected to remain in Brazil, while the new strategy of the group,

with self-financeable growth expectations and positive financial results going

forward, should start to bear fruit. We believe the curtail uncertainty in Brazil

deserves a discount and include -20% in our TP; nonetheless, the group

trading at an estimated c.-40% discount on its fair value seems excessive in

our view, supporting our Buy rating. We fine-tune our model, under which our

EUR9 TP takes conservative assumptions such as EUR0.9/MW of installed

capacity, confirming our Buy rating on the name! FY to 31/12 (EUR) 12/25 12/26E 12/27E

Sales 588 655 770

Key findings EBITDA adj. 211 215 314

We estimate that prior to the Brazilian curtailment, Voltalia was trading at a 10- EBIT adj. 4 77 163

Net profit adj.